Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Green Bay Packers/San Francisco 49ers Over 50.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on FOX

Whether this game is close because the Packers play above their heads again, or if it’s a blowout because the 49ers are just that much better, getting into the 50’s is not a big ask tonight. San Francisco regularly scores in the 30’s themselves when all their offensive pieces are available, and the extra rest will make them fully healthy.

They should shred a Packers defense that is not as good as it’s looked in the past few weeks, especially on the ground and over the middle of the field where the 49ers offense thrives. But this San Fran defense is not as good as people assume, suffering key injuries on the back end and not looking good analytically. On a decent weather night in the Bay Area, these teams should have no trouble scoring enough to reach this total.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Green Bay Packers Team Total Over 20.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars)

The Packers might not replicate their points output from last week, but this offense is red hot and can take advantage of the San Fran defense. In the second half of the season, the 49ers defense has ranked 28th in rush EPA, 20th in dropback success rate, 17th in dropback EPA, and 22nd in overall success rate.

Meanwhile, the Packers have ranked 2nd in offensive DVOA since Week 9, so this is a concerning matchup for San Fran that isn’t getting enough attention. Whether it’s right away or in garbage time, Green Bay will get theirs tonight.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Packers/49ers First Half Over 24.5 (-110 Odds via Caesars)

Both of these teams are excellent on scripted drives early in games, so we should see points right away. The Packers have shown that they want to get the ball first and are scoring at a very high level on opening possessions.

Green Bay went from one of the worst first-half scoring teams to one of the best down the stretch of the season, and the 49ers have always been a high-scoring team before halftime, ranking 3rd in the NFL this year. I think the style, matchups, and coaching philosophies combine to get us plenty of early points tonight.

NFL Saturday Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Odell Beckham Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)

0.5 Unit – Nico Collins Over 6.5 Receptions (+115)

0.5 Unit – Nico Collins Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Devin Singletary Under 15.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – Zay Flowers Anytime TD (+145)

0.25 Unit – Nico Collins Anytime TD (+155)

0.25 Unit – Isaiah Likely Anytime TD (+180)

0.25 Unit – Odell Beckham Anytime TD (+250)

1 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – George Kittle Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jayden Reed Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jordan Love Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Brock Purdy Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.25 Unit – George Kittle Anytime TD (+125)

0.25 Unit – Jayden Reed Anytime TD (+200)

0.25 Unit – Romeo Doubs Anytime TD (+250)

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Alabama/Tennessee Over 157 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This is a fascinating matchup of strength-on-strength. Alabama brings the country’s best adjusted efficiency offense to Rocky Top to face Tennessee’s second-best adjusted efficiency defense. But ultimately I think it’s offense that is the story today, because the Vols have their own elite offense ranked 21st nationally for adjusted efficiency.

When the Tide have faced off against top-tier opponents who can also score, the result has never been anything less than 161 total points. Tennessee’s offense is also much more effective at home, scoring 0.129 more points per possession. I also expect it to be raining three’s in this game, so that should help justify the 163 point projection from KenPom and push this game over the total.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Purdue/Iowa Over 165 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on FS1

We’ve already seen these teams play, resulting in an 87-65 win for Purdue on their home floor that actually stayed under the closing total. But this number today realizes the vast difference for Iowa when they play on the road compared to at home, scoring a full 20 points more per game and 0.183 more per possession. Their effective field goal percentage goes up 6 points, their 3-point shooting by 5 points, and their 2-point percentage by 5 points as well.

So the Hawkeyes are well-suited to get revenge for that blowout loss at Purdue, at least from making things look better on the offensive end. But Iowa will not stop the Boilermakers enough to keep this game from reaching the high total. Purdue is too good offensively as the nation’s second-best in adjusted efficiency, with the 14th-highest effective field goal rate and 6th-best three-point shooting. Iowa’s tempo will speed that offense up and maximize the points here to get this over the total.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) UCF @ Houston -9.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is a pure situational play against UCF after their incredibly improbable win at Texas this week. The Knights erased a 16-point deficit, then got yelled at for flashing the horns down which has been talked about for days now. Overconfidence is not something you want to bring into Houston, where the Cougars are simply dominant with the country’s 3rd-best average first half margin at plus-17.9 points. UCF has trailed at halftime of all their conference games in this introduction to Big12 play, including by 16 and 12 in the two road contests. Houston’s elite defense will shut down a Knights team that really struggles to shoot, and establish a big early lead today.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UMass Lowell -5.5 @ Binghamton (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

On a big sports day overall, this game is really flying under the radar. But that helps to keep the action away from it and this line in range to grab up the value. The sharp attention this game has gotten pushed Lowell to a slightly bigger favorite, but KenPom still has this as a 7-point advantage for the River Hawks.

This team can play, owning a very strong defense that will slow down a Binghamton team that is no threat at all from the perimeter. The Bearcats have not kept any conference games within this margin, and were just run out by 20 on their home floor by Vermont who’s the other excellent America East contender. Lowell should have no trouble today as they’ve easily won and covered both conference road games so far this season.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Northwestern @ Nebraska -2.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:15 PM CT on BTN

Both of these teams have found out the hard way just how difficult it is to win on the road in the Big Ten. That home court advantage should show up again for Nebraska, as the Huskers have been excellent in their own gym this year. That includes their upset win over Purdue last week, which seemed to get them a little too hyped for the subsequent road games that they lost.

But returning home here is a big advantage over a Northwestern team that has struggled in their few true road games this season. The Wildcats will have trouble guarding the barrage of three’s that Nebraska puts up today. The Huskers rely on points from beyond the arc at the 40th-highest rate in the country, while Northwestern is just 260th in three-point percentage defense. Those shots are a lot easier in front of a home crowd that is sure to be raucous today, so I like Nebraska to earn the win here and cover the short number.

Degenerates

NBA OKC Thunder/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I’m not sure what’s going on with the Wolves and their early-game defense, but the problem definitely exists and it’s not likely to improve tonight. Minnesota gave up 40 first quarter points in Detroit the other night, then came home to allow 30 in the first frame to Memphis.

Neither of those teams are even decent offensively, but OKC is elite and they’re 3rd in first-quarter scoring this season. This number is adjusted for those tendencies compared to the full-game total and I think with good reason. So until the Wolves get back to clamping down defensively, I’ll take overs like this against opponents who are excellent offensively.

Tiny Nick is 1958-1746 ATS (+101.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.